Air Power Development Centre #15: Accepting Uncertainty? A Contemporary Methodology For Capability Development (2004) By Peter Layton
 
The changes in the International security environment that have occurred over the past two decades are readily apparent to all observers. These changes ensure that the types of threat scenarios that the ADF can expect to confront in the coming years will always remain uncertain. Uncertainty will thus present a significant problem to those trying to determine and prioritise future capabilities that are needed to be developed for the ADF. Given this assured uncertainty, traditional scenario-based methods of capability development planning may need to be re-examined in an attempt to determine the best means of future capability requirements determination. This paper proposes the use of scenario matrix planning as a tool to assist in the development of capability requirement guidance. Rather than trying to predict the future and build a force to meet that prediction, scenario matrix planning is presented as a means by which, via the development of a number of possible future scenarios, likely trends and possibilities for the future are described. These trends and their probabilities are then used, in conjunction with other inputs to the requirements process, to guide the development of capabilities that will best meet national needs. In an uncertain and volatile security scenario, all available tools must be employed to ensure optimum response from the ADF. The use of scenario matrix planning is one more tool that must be experimented with to ascertain its efficacy and further usage.
 
Soft Cover
41 Pages
In Fair to Good Condition